A computer model, SWFSIM (Screwworm Fly Simulation), has been developed for simulation of population dynamics of Cochliomyia hominivorax on a world-wide basis.  The model uses a complex, dynamic life table approach with daily age classes and time steps and is spatially homogenous.  Myiasis development in individual hosts is simulated using stochastic procedures for host finding, detection/treatment of hosts and host death for a fixed area of 100 sq km with a discrete number of hosts.  Seasonal population dynamics are simulated by varying major biological parameters (survival, development and host finding) with weather data (temperature, saturation deficit and rainfall).  Other location specific variables  include host density,  proportion of hosts that are domestic, wound rate and  wound treatment rate.  Fly density estimates for Costa Rica and case report data for Texas, Mexico and Libya were used for model calibration and verification.  The model produces realistic simulations of seasonal dynamics for locations with widely different weather patterns using a fixed set of biological parameters.

 SWFSIM is an information and analysis system that operates interactively on a DOS based personal or laptop computer.  The system provides a prediction of population dynamics and the effect of control efforts in areas where eradication is planned or areas subject to accidental introduction or outbreaks.

 Current research with SWFSIM involves validation comparisons with population dynamics data for Panama.  Future development of this model will include integration with geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing studies.